American Statistical Association
2007 Annual Utah Chapter Meeting

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

6:30pm Pizza
7:00pm Presentation
HSEB 1700
University of Utah

Attendance Fee:
$3 for student members
$7 for regular members

"Invasions, Epidemics, and Binary Data in a Cellular World"

Mevin Hooten
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Utah State University


Hierarchical models for estimating and predicting spatio-temporal
ecological processes have been useful in situations where large-scale
monitoring projects provide data in the form of counts.  It is often the
case in ecological studies, however, that it is only feasible to collect
binary (i.e., presence / absence) data on large spatial and temporal
domains.  In such settings, the propagation of underlying ecological
phenomena may still behave in a well-defined theoretical fashion (e.g.,
according to PDE-based dynamics), though limited information prohibits
the implementation of conventional spatio-temporal process models.  When
there is simply not enough information to inform such scientifically
based parameterizations, we propose the use of a scientifically naive,
rule-based dynamic process model within a hierachical framework.
Utilizing only simple model specifications can still accomodate multiple
sources of uncertainty (e.g., observational error and detection
probability) yet exhibit complicated large-scale dynamical behavior for
characterizing the spread of invasive species and epidemics in the
presence of binary data.   

Driving Directions to campus:

From south on I-15:  take the 6th South exit (#306) and follow 600 south
until you reach 700 east, then turn left onto 700 east, drive for two
blocks to 400 south. Turn right, proceeding east on 400 south/University
Blvd, the street becomes 500 south/Foothill Blvd. After driving for
approximately 2 miles, turn left onto Wasatch Drive. Follow Wasatch
Drive and bear right onto Medical Drive, then turn right and turn right
again on South Medical Drive, HSEB (and the parking lot) is on your

From north on I-15:  take the 4th South exit (#307) and drive on 400
south/500 south/University Blvd for about 4 miles before you turn left
onto Wasatch Drive.

From I-80 or the Belt Route (I-215) take the Foothill Blvd exit (I-80
#129, or I-215 Exit #1) and head northwest. Drive 3.5 miles and turn
right onto Wasatch Drive.

Campus map: