UTAH CHAPTER
American Statistical Association
 
2007 Annual Utah Chapter Meeting Tuesday, October 30, 2007 6:30pm Pizza 7:00pm Presentation HSEB 1700 University of Utah Attendance Fee: $3 for student members $7 for regular members "Invasions, Epidemics, and Binary Data in a Cellular World" Mevin Hooten Department of Mathematics and Statistics Utah State University Abstract: Hierarchical models for estimating and predicting spatio-temporal ecological processes have been useful in situations where large-scale monitoring projects provide data in the form of counts. It is often the case in ecological studies, however, that it is only feasible to collect binary (i.e., presence / absence) data on large spatial and temporal domains. In such settings, the propagation of underlying ecological phenomena may still behave in a well-defined theoretical fashion (e.g., according to PDE-based dynamics), though limited information prohibits the implementation of conventional spatio-temporal process models. When there is simply not enough information to inform such scientifically based parameterizations, we propose the use of a scientifically naive, rule-based dynamic process model within a hierachical framework. Utilizing only simple model specifications can still accomodate multiple sources of uncertainty (e.g., observational error and detection probability) yet exhibit complicated large-scale dynamical behavior for characterizing the spread of invasive species and epidemics in the presence of binary data. Driving Directions to campus: From south on I-15: take the 6th South exit (#306) and follow 600 south until you reach 700 east, then turn left onto 700 east, drive for two blocks to 400 south. Turn right, proceeding east on 400 south/University Blvd, the street becomes 500 south/Foothill Blvd. After driving for approximately 2 miles, turn left onto Wasatch Drive. Follow Wasatch Drive and bear right onto Medical Drive, then turn right and turn right again on South Medical Drive, HSEB (and the parking lot) is on your left. From north on I-15: take the 4th South exit (#307) and drive on 400 south/500 south/University Blvd for about 4 miles before you turn left onto Wasatch Drive. From I-80 or the Belt Route (I-215) take the Foothill Blvd exit (I-80 Exit #129, or I-215 Exit #1) and head northwest. Drive 3.5 miles and turn right onto Wasatch Drive. Campus map: http://www.map.utah.edu/index.jsp?xmax=429938&ymax=4513570&xmin=429252&y min=4513166&find=575 http://www.map.utah.edu/index.jsp?xmax=429938&ymax=4513570&xmin=429252&ymin=4513166&find=575http://www.map.utah.edu/index.jsp?xmax=429938&ymax=4513570&xmin=429252&ymin=4513166&find=575shapeimage_1_link_0shapeimage_1_link_1