Online Program

Saturday, February 23
PS3 Poster Session 3 & Continental Breakfast Sat, Feb 23, 7:30 AM - 9:00 AM
Napoleon Ballroom

Joint Probability of Extreme Wave and Water Level Climate for Coastal Risk Analysis

*Norberto Carlos Nadal-Caraballo, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

Keywords: risk analysis, joint probability, extreme values, coastal structures, storms

Extreme waves and water levels are critical factors in the design and operation of coastal structures such as breakwaters, jetties, and levees. Coastal structure projects often require extensive review and analysis of data to accurately represent the extreme storm climate of the region of interest. Risk analysis and computation of extreme value statistics are vital to the success of any new design or retrofitting effort of these structures. Historically, such assessments have been performed in a highly simplified manner, typically modeling processes deterministically using return period storm events or employing basic reliability-based methods.

StormSIM is a new software and simulation strategy developed at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers R&D Center to perform coastal risk analysis based on the joint probability of multiple storm climate parameters. Contrary to traditional techniques, StormSIM employs a time-dependant life-cycle analysis approach that addresses the sequences of storm events causing accumulated structure damage, marginal risk from extreme storms occurring in succession, and added risk from a damaged structure. This new strategy facilitates standardized risk-based analyses of coastal structures and preserves the complex and nonlinear interrelations among all significant wave and water level parameters.