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Activity Number: 230
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2008 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #302230
Title: Assessing the Accuracy of Sports Predictions
Author(s): Paul Stephenson*+ and John Gabrosek and Dan Frobish
Companies: Grand Valley State University and Grand Valley State University and Grand Valley State University
Address: Department of Statistics, 1133 MAK, Allendale, MI, 49401,
Keywords: Sports prediction ; Correlation ; Agreement
Abstract:

The success of ESPN, sports periodicals and local sports radio stations has dramatically increased the number of "experts" that present their predictions for games, tournaments and seasons. Further, the fact that these proclaimed experts present their speculations on television, radio and the internet legitimizes their opinions. But to what degree has the accuracy of these experts been evaluated and what metrics are appropriate to evaluate their accuracy. In this presentation the authors will discuss several metrics for quantifying the accuracy of predictions. In addition, we will demonstrate the application of these metrics on a variety of sports, and we will use these metrics to compare the accuracy of several experts.


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Revised September, 2008