ISBA Regional Meeting
Laguna Beach, California
Sponsors:
Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
Department of Economics
Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science
School of Social Sciences
University of California, Irvine (UCI)
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science, ASA
Program
April 5, 2001
Location: All sessions are held in the Laguna Room at Hotel
Laguna (425 S. Coast Highway, Laguna Beach, CA 92651). For more conference details see: http://www.socsci.uci.edu/bayesian
For registration details see: http://www.bayesian.org
Note: In the program names appearing in bold denote participants. At each plenary session, primary speakers are allocated 30 minutes, discussants are allocated 10 minutes, and 5 minutes are left for rebuttal and questions from the floor.
Thursday (April 5, 2001)
ISBA Executive Committee Meeting in the Pacific Room (closed, 1:00pm - 5:00pm)
Chair: Alicia Carriquiry (Iowa State University and President of ISBA)
Art Walk (6:00pm - 9:00pm): For information check:
http://www.lagunabeachinfo.org/ads/firstthursdays.html
Registration and Reception Buffet in Court Yard (6:00pm
- 9:00pm)
Friday (April 6, 2001) [2:42am , 0.37 feet,
Low Tide; 6:32am, Sunrise;
8:43am, 5.48 feet, High Tide; 3:06pm, -0.65 feet, Low Tide; 7:16pm , Sunset; 9:21pm, 5.29
feet, High Tide]
Opening Remarks (8:15am - 8:30am)
Chair: Dale J. Poirier (UCI)
Speaker: Michael P. Clark (Associate Executive Vice
Chancellor, UCI)
Chair: Bill Batchelder (UCI)
Speakers:
Dan Kersten
(University of Minnesota), “Visual Perception as Statistical
Inference”
Discussant: Don Hoffman (UCI)
Brian Junker (Carnegie-Mellon
University), “Item
Response Modeling: A Toolbox for Educational and Psychological
Measurement”
Discussant: George Karabatsos (LSU)
Coffee Break in Court Yard(10:00am - 10:30am)
Chair: Brian Skyrms
(UCI)
Speakers:
Alan Hajek
(California Institute of Technology), “Conditional Probability is
the Guide to Life”
Discussant: Richard Jeffrey (Princeton University)
Phil Dawid
(University College London), “Subjective Beliefs and the Empirical
World”
Discussant: Jeffrey Barrett (UCI)
Lunch / Beach Time (Noon - 2:00pm),
Pick-up box lunches in Court Yard
Session 3 (2:00pm - 3:30pm): Spatial Modeling and
University Education
Chair: S. James Press
(UCR)
Speakers:
Sudipto Banerjee, Melanie M. Wall and Bradley P. Carlin (University of Minnesota), “Bayesian Modeling for
Spatially Correlated Survival Data, with Application to Infant Mortality in
Minnesota”
Discussant: Mike Daniels (Iowa State University)
David Draper (UCSC)
and Mark Gittoes (University of Bath), “Statistical Analysis of
Performance Indicators in UK Higher Education”
Discussant: Justin Tobias (UCI)
Coffee Break in Court Yard (3:30pm - 4:00pm)
Session 4 (4:00pm - 5:30pm): Economics I
Chair: Justin Tobias
(UCI)
Speakers:
Kai Li (University of British
Columbia), Asani Sarkar (New
York Fed) and Zhenyu Wang (Columbia University), “Diversification
Benefits of Emerging Markets Subject to Portfolio Constraints”
Discussant: William McCausland (University of Minnesota)
Frank Schorfheide
and Yongsung Chang (University of Pennsylvania), “Labor-Supply Shifts and
Economic Fluctuations”
Discussant: John Geweke (University of Iowa)
Dinner and Free Time (5:30pm - 8:30pm)
Poster Session (8:30pm - 10:30pm)
Pierre Baldi (UCI),
“Relevance Versus Information--a
Bayesian Approach”
Igor V. Cadez and Padhraic
Smyth (UCI), “Mixture Models for
Large Transactional Data Sets with Applications to Visualization, Clustering
and Prediction”
Nidhan Choudhuri
(Case-Western Reserve University), “Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation of
the Spectral Density of a Time Series Using Bernstein Polynomial Prior”
M. Pourahmadi (Northern Illinois University) and M.
Daniels (Iowa State University),
“Dynamic Conditionally Linear Mixed Models”
Don Fraser
(University of Toronto), “Priors for Interest Parameters”
George
Karabatsos (Louisiana State University), “Testing Item Response Theory
Models with Order Restricted Inference and Markov Chain Estimation”
Xianping Ge and Padhraic Smyth (UCI), “Segmental Hidden Semi-Markov
Models for Pattern Detection in Time Series”
John Geweke
(University of Iowa), “Getting it Right: Checking for Errors in
Bayesian Models and Posterior Simulators”
Subhashis Ghosal
(University of Minnesota), “Default Priors in Some Nonparametric
Problems”
Jennifer Hill, Jane
Waldfogel, Jeanne Brooks-Gun and Wenjui Han (Columbia University), “Maternal
Employment and Child Outcomes: Towards a Better Estimate of the Causal
Link”
Gary Koop (University of Glasgow) and Kai Li (University of British Columbia), “The Valuation of IPO and SEO
Firms”
William McCausland
(University of Minnesota), “Random Consumer Demand: Theory and
Inference”
Hugh Chipman, (University of Waterloo), Edward I. George
(University of Texas) and Rob McCulloch
(University of Chicago), “Bayesian Treed Models”
Susan M. Paddock
(RAND), “A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Multiple Imputation of
Partially Observed Data”
Dale J. Poirier and Justin Tobias (UCI), “Estimating the
Predictive Distributions of Outcome Gains in the Presence of an Unidentified
Parameter”
Wolfgang Polasek
(University of Basel), “Bayesian Causality Measures for Multiple ARCH
Models Using Marginal Likelihoods”
Steven Scott and Edward H. Ip (USC), “Empirical
Bayes and Item Clustering Effects in the National Assessment of Educational
Progress”
Marc A. Suchard
(UCLA), Robert Weiss (UCLA), Karin Dorman (Iowa State University) and Janet
Sinsheimer (UCLA), “Are You My Mother? Inferring Parentals in HIV”
Elena Goldman (Rutgers University), Stanislav Radchenko
(Rutgers University), Teruo Nakatsuma (Keio University) and Hiroki Tsurumi (Rutgers University), “A Bayesian Test of
Stationarity in a Regression Model with an ARMA or ARMA-GARCH Error Term”
Arnold Zellner
(University of Chicago), “Information Processing and Bayesian
Analysis”
Saturday (April 7, 2001) [3:26am, -0.11 feet, Low Tide; 6:30am, Sunrise; 9:30am; 5.31 feet, High Tide; 3:40pm , -0.32 feet, Low
Tide; 7:16pm, Sunset; 8:23pm, Full
Moon; 9:52pm, 5.52 feet, High Tide]
Chair: Arnold Zellner (University of Chicago)
Speakers:
Penelope A. Smith and Peter M. Summers (University of Melbourne), “Synchronization of
Business Cycles in the G7 Countries: Evidence from Bayesian Analysis of Markov
Switching Models”
Discussant: Wolfgang Polasek (University of Basel)
Mark Dwyer and
Keisuke Hirano (UCLA), “Optimal Forecasting Under Data Revisions”
Discussant: Hiroki Tsurumi (Rutgers University)
Coffee Break in Court Yard (10:00am - 10:30am)
Discussant: David Brownstone (UCI)
Jae-Young Kim (SUNY, Albany), “Bayesian Limited Information Analysis in the GMM Framework.”
Lunch / Beach Time (Noon - 2:00pm),
Pick-up box lunches in Court Yard
Garth Holloway (University of Reading and International
Livestock Research Institute), Mohammed Ahmed and Simeon Ehui (International
Livestock Research Institute), “Animal-Traction Efficiency in a
Finite-Mixtures Framework”