TITLE
Prediction for Production and the Arts of Charts

PRESENTER
J. Stuart Hunter, Princeton University

DATE AND TIME
Tuesday, October 27, 12:00 p.m.- 2:00 p.m. Eastern time

DESCRIPTION
The Shewhart chart for variables data assumes a fixed mean, variance and stochastic independence and monitors a process for departures from these assumptions (y-bar and R charts, the Western Electric rules). Most data sequentially recorded do not obey these assumptions. We often find the mean is in motion, the variance unstable and adjacent observations are not independent. This webinar will discuss the EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) as a graphical tool to be used simultaneously with the Shewhart chart when the assumptions are relaxed. Using the EWMA as a forecast we find that real time process control is possible using simple graphical tools. Further, we will find that the EWMA is only one of the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) times series models. Other models drawn from the ARIMA group can also be used for process monitoring and control. The contributions of George Box and co-workers will be referenced throughout the webinar.

Answers to Questions Not Covered In the October 27 Webinar

About Webinars
A webinar is a seminar which is conducted over the World Wide Web. It is a type of web conferencing. In contrast to a Webcast, which is transmission of information in one direction only, webinars are designed to be interactive between the presenter and audience. A webinar is 'live' in the sense that information is conveyed according to an agenda, with a starting and ending time. In the case of this webinar series, the presenter speaks over a standard telephone line, pointing out information being presented on screen. The audience can respond via a chat feature. The word 'webinar' is a blend of web and seminar.

System Requirements
To participate in a web-based course, attendees need to have a PC running Windows 98, ME, NT, 2000, XP or 2003 with Microsoft Internet Explorer 5, 6, or Netscape 7 and a high-speed internet connection. WebEx Meeting Manager software will be installed on each attendee's PC before the beginning of the first web-based course.