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2003 Joint Statistical Meetings
2003 ENAR International Biometric Meeting

For information on the 2003 Joint Statistical Meetings,
August 3 - 7
, go to URL:

Invited Sessions organized and sponsored by the Risk Section on Thursday, August 7 (8:30-10:20am):

Risk Analysis in Complex Systems
Organizer: David L. Banks, Duke University

Assessing Risks for Complex Systems: A Case Study in Missiles - Alyson G Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Laura McNamara, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Knowledge Modeling, Data Integration, and Statistical Analysis for a Smallpox Simulation Study - Dr Sarah E. Michalak, Los Alamos National Labs

Issues in Semiparametric Regression: A Case Study of Time Series Models of Air Pollution and Mortality - Francesca Dominici, John Hopkins University; Aidan McDermott, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Trevor J. Hastie, Stanford University Dept of Stats & Biostats

Discussion: Nozer D. Singpurwalla, George Washington University

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Topic Contributed Sessions organized and sponsored by the Risk Section on Monday, August 4 (10:30am-12:20pm):

Risk Analysis in Medicine
Organizer: David L. Banks, Duke University

Molecular and genetic modeling of disease risk - Edwin S Iversen, Jr, Duke Univ

Risk Analysis of the Public Health Impacts of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies - Steven A. Anderson, FDA -Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research

Finding Simple Classification Rules for Disease Risk - Mr. Ingo Ruczinski, Johns Hopkins University

NISS Proteomics Workshop - Scott C. Schmidler, Section on Medical Informatics

Discussion: Darius Singpurwalla

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Contributed Sessions organized and sponsored by the Risk Section on Wednesday, August 6 (8:30-10:20am):

Environmental Risk Methods

Robust Estimation of Moments of Environmental Data With One-Sided Detection Limit -
Ping-Hung Hsieh, Oregon State University; Tsung-Chi Cheng, Department of Statistics, National Chengchi University

Addressing Model Uncertainty in Microbial Risk Assessment - Ravi Varadhan, Johns Hopkins University

Extreme Value Theory and Incomplete U-statistics Toward Quantitative Evaluation of Food Risk Exposure Related to Some Contaminants - Jessica Tressou, INR Corela; Patrice Bertail, CREST Paris X Nanterre

A Modified Estimator for the Cumulative Covariate Effect in Aalen's Additive Risk Model - Michael Brent McHenry, University of Pittsburgh; Stewart J. Anderson, University of Pittsburgh; Chung-Chou H. Chang, University of Pittsburgh; Howard E. Rockette, University of Pittsburg; Lisa A. Weissfeld, University of Pittsburgh; Mark Roberts, University of Pittsburgh

Risk Reduction Through Reliability Improvement - Wai F. Chiu, Harvard University; Arthur P. Dempster, Harvard University

Sensitivity of Copulas to Elicited Correlations - Christopher J Lacke, Rowan University

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Contributed Sessions organized and sponsored by the Risk Section on Wednesday, August 6 (2:00-3:50pm):

Issues in Financial Risk

Structural Models for Credit Migration - Ngai-Hang Chan, The Chinese University of Hong Kong; Michael Wong, Chinese University of Hong Kong

Estimating the Term Structure of Credit Spreads: Callable Corporate Debt - Antje Berndt, Stanford University

Simulating Conditional Ratings Transition Matrices for Credit Risk Analysis - Mark S Coleman

Global Validation of Linear Model Assumptions - Edsel A. Pena, University of South Carolina; Elizabeth H. Slate, Medical University of South Carolina

A Partial Proportional Odds Model on Income Mobility - Ying Lu, Princeton University; Fengyu Zhang, Duke University Medical Center

Dynamic Backtesting Methodology to detect flaws in Market Risk models - Jesus Ruiz-Mata; Victor De La Penia, Columbia University

For information on the 2003 ENAR International Biometric Meetings, March 30 - April 2, go to URL:


Invited Sessions organized and sponsored by the Risk Section:

Analysis of Adverse Event Reports
Organizer: David Banks, CBER/FDA

Postmarketing Drug Adverse Event Surveillance and the Innocent Bystander Effect
William DuMouchel, AT&T Shannon Laboratory

Spontaneous Fire Reports
Michael Greene and Mark Levenson, Consumer Products Safety Commission

Estimating the Number of Disappeared
Jana L. Asher, AAAS Science and Human Rights Program and Carnegie Mellon University; Patrick Ball, AAAS Science and Human Rights Program


Statistics and Counter-Bioterrorism
Organizer: David Banks, CBER/FDA

Statistical Models for Anthrax Outbreaks
Ron Brookmeyer and Natalie Blades, Johns Hopkins University

Biosurveillance for Early Detection of Terrorism
Ken Kleinman, Harvard Medical School

Risk Analysis and Game Theory
David Banks, CBER/FDA

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Revised: June 30, 2003