GSS/SSS JUNE-JULY 2012 NEWSLETTER
           Government Statistics and Social Statistics Sections
                    American Statistical Association
 
           GSS web site: http://www.amstat.org/sections/sgovt/
           SSS web site: http://www.amstat.org/sections/ssoc/
 
            GSS Publications Officer:  Sonya L. Vartivarian
                  (SVartivarian@Mathematica-MPR.com)
 
             SSS Publications Officer:  Joanna M. Turner
                         (turn0053@umn.edu)
 
             Newsletter Editor: Natalya Verbitsky Savitz
                   (NVSavitz@Mathematica-MPR.com)

IN THIS ISSUE: 

· LETTER FROM SECTIONS’ CHAIRS (NEW!)
· COUNCIL OF PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS ON FEDERAL STATISTICS: JUNE 2012
  MEETING (NEW!)
· UPCOMING JSM 2012 EVENTS (NEW!)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPCOMING DEADLINES AND EVENTS:
July 28-August 2    Joint Statistical Meetings, San Diego, CA

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
                               
LETTER FROM SECTIONS’ CHAIRS (NEW!)

Dear Members of the Social Statistics and Government Statistics Sections:

Earlier this year, the officers of the Social Statistics Section (SSS) and
Government Statistics Section (GSS) conducted a review of the fiscal stability
and activities of our respective sections. In the process of this review,
several points surfaced:

1. Both sections have faced increased costs over the past few years associated
with events at the Joint Statistical Meetings, very low returns on our reserves,
and ASA administrative overhead, which have reduced our financial reserves;
2. Many of the past revenue sources (e.g., printing and publications fees) have
disappeared due to free electronic dissemination; and
3. Although our reserves are currently sufficient, it is important that our
sections have a self-sustaining budget to continue to effectively serve you
going forward.

As fiduciaries of the sections’ financial resources, we are obliged to address
increasing costs and administer our reserves on your behalf. Therefore, the
Executive Boards of each section voted to raise SSS and GSS dues to $6.00 per
year. The joint SSS-GSS membership rate will increase to $10.00 per year ($7.00
is the current rate). Student rates will remain unchanged at $1.00 per year.
These new dues will go into effect September 1, 2012.

This change will help us serve you better by helping to ensure that we have the
funds to support activities that serve our section members. For example, GSS
just co-sponsored the 2012 International Conference on Establishment Surveys,
which took place in Montreal, Canada, June 11-14, 2012, and SSS is co-sponsoring
the International Conference on Methods for Surveying and Enumerating Hard-to-
Reach Populations, which will take place in New Orleans in October of 2012. And,
having now completed one American FactFinder workshop (held in Washington, D.C.
in April), we are planning to create a Webinar with the U.S. Census Bureau to
widen the scope of this activity. Finally, both sections are proud to provide
support for the annual Student Paper Competition and special awards, such as
the Roger Herriot Award for Innovation in Federal Statistics.

We welcome any comments you have on this change. Feel free to email either one
of us jsalvo@planning.nyc.gov or bharrisk@omb.eop.gov. We look forward to
seeing you at JSM in San Diego and hope that you will attend the SSS Business
meeting on Monday July 30th at 5:30pm and the GSS Business meeting on Tuesday
July 31st at 5:30 pm.

Brian Harris-Kojetin
Chair, Government Statistics Section

Joseph Salvo
Chair, Social Statistics Section

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COUNCIL OF PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS ON FEDERAL STATISTICS: JUNE 2012
 MEETING (NEW!)
Submitted by Robert Lussier, COPAFS representative, Government Statistics Section

The Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) acts
as the advocate for the development and dissemination of high-quality federal
statistics. Member organizations include professional associations, businesses,
research institutes, and others interested in Federal statistics. Through
COPAFS, members have an opportunity to review and have an impact on issues
including timeliness, quality, confidentiality, and the relevance of data.
COPAFS holds quarterly meetings, the last one being on June 1, 2012. Detailed
minutes, together with copies of the overheads used by the presenters can be
found on COPAFS website
www.copafs.org

As part of his Executive Director’s report, Ed Spar described an OMB memo
clamping down on the conference activities of federal agencies. With agencies
now encouraged to organize conferences in-house, COPAFS conference activity is
being impacted. Mr. Spar also talked about the budget situation, especially
related to the economic census and the American Community Survey (ACS). Mr.
Spar described the $20 million cut from the economic census as basically a
misunderstanding in Congress that is likely to be reversed. There are two
bills on the ACS. One would eliminate it, and the other would make response to
it voluntary. Mr. Spar also described the recently released 2010 census coverage
measurement numbers. He credited the Census Bureau for reporting the gross
errors (undercount and over-count) for geographic detail, including large
counties. Finally, Mr. Spar noted that the next Federal Committee on Statistical
Methodology Policy Seminar is scheduled for December 4-5.

A Review of Plans for the Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Patricia Hu, the new director of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS),
described her organization as collecting, analyzing, and reporting
transportation data, and ensuring the costefficient use of resources in
monitoring transportation’s contributions to the economy. BTS, established in
1992 under the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act is part of the
Department of Transportation’s Research and Innovative Technology
Administration. However, BTS is not the only statistical agency within the
Department. The Federal Highway Administration spearheads the National
Household Travel Survey.

Ms. Hu described some specific BTS programs. Reflecting the growing importance
of freight, the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) collects data from 100,000 shippers
on domestic freight shipments by commodity types, origins, and destinations. A
Trans Border Freight Data program supplements the CFS. Ms. Hu also described
programs on passenger travel, such as the collection of monthly data on airline
enplanements, on-time performance, and ground delays. There is also a 2010
National Census of Ferry Operators, and a GIS-based Intermodal Passenger
Connectivity Database. This program, for example, identified that Americans in
rural counties are losing access to inter-city transportation options.

BTS is engaged in modernizing data programs, such as a web response option for
CFS, and the streamlined tracking of airline information. BTS also promotes
data access, and is getting into the development of mobile apps, web
engineering, and data visualization. Other initiatives include the
re-introduction of the Journal of Transportation Statistics, the re-energizing
of the ASA’s Transportation Statistics Interest Group, and the coordination of
transportation statistics and definitions across North America.

Measuring Sexual Identity in NCHS Surveys
Jennifer Madans, National Center for Health Statistics, presented work in
progress on Measuring Sexual Identity in NCHS Surveys. She started by describing
the need to better understand the health of sexual minority groups, as there is
evidence of health disparities, and a need for data to help address them.

Collecting data on sexual identity is complex. One challenge is the definition
of concepts such as sexual orientation, sexual attraction, sexual behavior, and
sexual identity. Further complicating matters is the fact that sexual identity
can change over time and with context (for example, depending on who is asking).
There also are issues with the varied use and comprehension of terms in the
media and across subgroups. Different groups relate to terms differently. For
example, sexual non-minorities tend to talk more about what they are not rather
than what they are. For example, they might report that “I’m not gay.” They
might also not know the meaning of some terms such as “heterosexual” and
“bi-sexual.” In contrast, sexual identity tends to be highly salient to sexual
minorities–such as lesbian, gay, bi-sexual, and transgender persons.

Ms. Madans then reviewed some of the ways sexual identity has been asked in
the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the National
Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). In the NSFG, about six percent of respondents
do not answer sexual identity, which gives “missing” a higher frequency than
some of the target groups. Missing responses are less of a problem in the
NHANES, but they are not random. For example, missing responses have been more
common among Hispanics. The 2006-2008 NSFG includes improvements to wording and
allows people to write in what they mean by “something else.” The number of
“missing” is sharply reduced overall, but remains high in some groups.

The plan is to add questions on sexual identity to the National Health Interview
Survey (NHIS), a larger and interviewer-conducted survey. Goals for the new
questions are to reduce misclassification (especially for non-minorities),
reduce “something else” and “don’t know” responses, and to sort non-minority
from minority cases. Testing of the new NHIS questions will continue through
2012, and full implementation is targeted for January 2013.

How Good Are the Annual Social and Economic Supplement Earnings Data? A
Comparison to SSA Detailed Earnings Records
Fritz Scheuren, National Opinion Research Center, described research that
matches records from the Current Population Survey’s 2006 Annual Social and
Economic Supplement (ASEC) with Social Security’s 2005 Detailed Earnings
Records (DER). The joint project of U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Health
and Human Services compares the two to gauge their consistency on income earned
in calendar year 2005.

Mr. Scheuren described the handling of income imputation in cases of ASEC
nonresponse, noting the difference between item imputes (e.g., cases where a
specific question is unanswered) and whole imputes (e.g., cases where the
entire supplement is imputed). Imputation is a potential factor in the
comparison, as poverty rates differ by imputation status.

In comparing ASEC and DER data, Mr. Scheuren noted that DER is not a gold
standard, as it misses some persons and sources of earnings. DER and ASEC can
differ in a number of other ways, so that an ASEC-DER comparison is not a pure
“apples to apples” comparison.

Results were tabulated for persons age 15 and above with earnings. Overall, 52
percent had ASEC and DER incomes within $10,000 of each other, and 79 percent
were within $20,000. For records without imputation, 61 percent were within
$10,000 and 88 percent were within $20,000. Records with whole imputes were
least consistent, with only 24 percent within $10,000 and 72 percent within
$20,000. The correspondence also is strong when looking at the “inpoverty”
population. When DER is substituted for ASEC, the majority of persons do not
change poverty status, and that result holds across demographic groups.

Still to be studied are persons with no ASEC-DER match, and those with highly
dissimilar incomes.

Managing and Analyzing Longitudinal Data
Patricia Ruggles, Orlin Research, Inc., described the company she runs. It
provides products to enhance the use of complex data in social science research.
For example, analysis of longitudinal data is complex. Sample attrition,
weighting problems, and inconsistencies in response across waves of a survey
complicate matters. Creating the necessary links can be difficult in standard
statistical packages, such as SAS or SPSS. It may also be highly inefficient,
as one would have to track, for example, each person’s income for each month
of the survey. Analysts often shy away from using large longitudinal data sets
such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) or use such
databases only for cross-sectional analyses.

Ms. Ruggles described three basic steps in the use of longitudinal analysis:
(1) understanding the data, (2) preparing data for analysis, and (3) performing
analyses. Using 2008 SIPP as an example, Ruggles expanded on these steps, and
described how her company’s products can help with each step.

Further information on the Orlin system can be found at www.orlinresearch.com.
This concluded the June meeting. The next COPAFS meeting will take place
September 21, 2012.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPCOMING JSM 2012 EVENTS (NEW!)
Submitted by Elizabeth Stuart, 2012 SSS JSM Program Chair, and
Daniell Toth, 2012 GSS JSM Program Chair

Please join us for an exciting line up of SSS- and GSS- sponsored sessions at
the Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM)! A list of the invited sessions, topic
contributed sessions, and lunchtime roundtables appears below. You can find
all of our sessions on the JSM’s website by searching by sponsor (“Social
Statistics Section” or “Section on Government Statistics”). Thanks to all of
the organizers and presenters for your help in putting together a great program!
Please email Elizabeth Stuart (estuart@jhsph.edu) or Daniell Toth
(Toth.Daniell@bls.gov) with any questions or suggestions. This is also the time
to start thinking about JSM 2013: please send any ideas for sessions to next
year’s program chairs, Deborah Griffin (deborah.h.griffin@census.gov) or Eric
Rancourt (Eric.Rancourt@statcan.gc.ca).

Invited Sessions

Sunday, July 29
2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 32A)
“Statistical challenges in mental health research,”
Organizer: Yuanjia Wang, Columbia University

2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 30E)
“Protecting confidentiality of complex data,”
Organizer: Jerome P Reiter, Duke University

Monday, July 30
8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 28A)
“Causal inference with longitudinal data: Challenges and new solutions,”
Organizer: Elizabeth Stuart, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

10:30-12:20 pm (HQ-Sapphire H)
“A showcase of statistical activities at federal statistical agencies,”
Organizer: Jeri Mulrow, National Science Foundation

Tuesday July 31
10:30-12:20 pm (HQ-Sapphire B)
“Missing data and causal inference,”
Organizer: Baojiang Chen, University of Nebraska Medical Center

Wednesday, August 1
2:00-3:50 pm (HQ-Sapphire H)
“Benchmarking and seasonal adjustment,”
Organizer: Tucker McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau

2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 29A)
“Treatment effect heterogeneity in causal inference,”
Organizer: Kosuke Imai, Princeton University

Thursday, August 2
8:30-10:20 am (HQ-Sapphire D)
“Small population, big impact: Improving the measurement of the
group quarters population in the American Community Survey,”
Organizer: Krisztina Marton, Committee on National Statistics

Topic Contributed Sessions
Sunday, July 29
2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 31A)
“Statistical and bioinformatical innovations in genomics research in the
VA cooperative studies program,”
Organizer: Ilana Belitskaya-Levy, VA Palo Alto Cooperative Studies Program
  Coordinating Center
  
2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 31B)
“Statistical pipeline: Made in the USA in honor of Nampeo McKenney
and Nagambal Shah,”
Organizer: Juanita Tamayo Lott, Tamayo Lott Asssociates

4:00-5:50 pm (CC-Room 25C)
“Estimating unauthorized migration,”
Organizer: Enrico Marcelli, San Diego State University

4:00-5:50 pm (CC-Room 28A)
“Federal perspectives on privacy, confidentiality, and data quality,”
Organizer: Eve Powell-Griner, National Center for Health Statistics

Monday, July 30
8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 27B)
“Analyzing and adjusting for nonresponse,”
Organizer: Polly Phipps, Bureau of Labor Statistics

10:30-12:20 pm (CC-Room 28E)
“Challenges of data analysis in transportation,”
Organizer: Jenny R Guarino, U.S. Department of Transportation/RITA

2:00-3:50 pm (HQ-Sapphire H)
“40 years and counting: CNSTAT's role in government and social statistics,”
Organizer: Juanita Lott, Tamayo Lott Associates

2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 31A)
“Data-driven transportation statistics,”
Organizer: Promod Chandhok, Ph.D, Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Tuesday, July 31
8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 21)
“Challenges of continuing a longitudinal study after a long hiatus:
The Project Talent example,”
Organizer: Michael P. Cohen, American Institutes for Research

8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 24C)
“Evaluating CPS ASEC data quality,”
Organizer: Edward J Welniak, U.S. Census Bureau

8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 30E)
“Randomization inference and causal effects with groups and networks,”
Organizer: Cyrus Samii, New York University

10:30-12:20 pm (CC-Room 23A)
“Transportation statistics interest group panel,”
Organizer: Peg Young, BTS/RITA/U.S. Department of Transportation

2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 31B)
“Command responsibility: Building cases of policy from patterns of individual
events in international human rights cases and domestic class action suits,”
Organizer: Megan Price, Benetech

2:00-3:50 pm (CC-Room 30E)
“Labor estimates by firm size,”
Organizer: Nathan Clausen, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wednesday, August 1
8:30-10:20am (CC-Room 27A)
“Causal inference with multi-level data when the covariates are imperfect,”
Organizer: Dan McCaffrey, RAND Corporation

8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 26B)
“Statistics in uncovering administrative cheating on tests,”
Organizer: Martin Levy, University of Cincinnati

10:30-12:20 pm (CC-Room 33A)
“Innovations in study design in the VA cooperative studies program (CSP),”
Organizer: Ying Lu, VA Palo Alto Healthcare System/Stanford University

10:30-12:20 pm (CC-Room 33B)
“Patient-reported outcomes in mental and behavioral health,”
Organizer: Douglas Gunzler, Case Western Reserve University

Thursday, August 2
8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 30A)
“Innovative data analysis of clinical trials in the VA cooperative studies
program,”
Organizer: Ying Lu, VA Palo Alto Healthcare System/Stanford University

8:30-10:20 am (CC-Room 28E)
“Frequentist and Bayesian models in government,”
Organizer: Wendy Barboza, USDA/National Agricultural Statistics Service

10:30-12:20 pm (CC-Room 31A)
“Evaluations of the American Community Survey and 2010 Census data,”
Organizer: Linda Jacobsen, Population Reference Bureau

Lunchtime Roundtables:
Note: all lunchtime roundtables take place in CC-Ballroom 20D
at 12:30-1:50 pm on the date specified.

Monday, July 30
“Update on the Census Bureau's survey planning database,”
Nancy Bates, U.S. Census Bureau

Tuesday, July 31
“Model-based estimation: When is it good enough for production?”
Wendy Barboza, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA

Wednesday, August 1
“Testing and implementing an internet response option,”
Jennifer Tancreto, U.S. Census Bureau

“Using the American Community Survey to improve sample design and surve
weighting,”
Alfred Navarro, U.S. Census Bureau

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                       GOVERNMENT STATISTICS SECTION

The mission of the Government Statistics Section (GSS) is to promote the
use of sound statistical theory and methods in the production of data at
all levels of government - be it Federal, State, local, or international;
assist in the broad dissemination of those data; and encourage good
statistical practice by all users.  Areas of interest for the Section
include all that involve the production, dissemination, and application of
governmental statistics, including concern with statistical policy issues,
quality and usefulness of governmental data products, special problems of
State and local data, comparability of data among different countries, and
the role of professional statisticians in the public sector.


                           OFFICERS AND CONTACTS

|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Brian A, Harris-Kojetin             |  Sonya Vartivarian                   |
|  Chair, 2012                         |  Publications Officer, 2007-12       |
|  Brian_A._Harris-Kojetin@omb.eop.gov |  VartivarianS@gao.gov                |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Lisa M. Blumerman                   |  Robert Lussier                      |
|  Chair-Elect, 2012                   |  COPAFS Rep, 2011-12                 |
|  lisa.m.blumerman@census.gov         |  RobertMLussier@videotron.ca         |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Steven Paben                        |  John S. Dixon                       |
|  Past-Chair, 2012                    |  COPAFS Rep, 2012-13                 |
|  Paben.Steven@bls.gov                |  Dixon.John@BLS.gov                  |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Daniell S. Toth                     |  Natalya Verbitsky Savitz            |
|  Program Chair, 2012                 |  Newsletter Editor, 2009-12          |
|  Toth.Daniell@bls.gov                |  NVSavitz@Mathematica-MPR.com        |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Eric Rancourt                       |  Bill Wong                           |
|  Program Chair-Elect, 2012           |  Assistant Editor, Amstat Online     |
|  Eric.Rancourt@statcan.gc.ca         |  bjwg@yahoo.com                      |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Kevin Cecco                         |  Tai Phan                            |
|  Secretary/Treasurer, 2011-12        |  GSSLIST Coordinator                 |
|  kevin.cecco@irs.gov                 |  tai.phan@ed.gov                     |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Kennon Copeland                     |  Rick Peterson                       |
|  Council of Sections Rep, 2010-12    |  Staff Liaison                       |
|  Copeland-Kennon@norc.org            |  Rick@amstat.org                     |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|

2010 GSS CORPORATE SPONSORS
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Division of Science Resources Statistics (SRS), National Science Foundation (NSF)
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA)
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC)
Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Social Security Administration

2011 GSS CORPORATE SPONSORS
Division of Science Resources Statistics (SRS), National Science Foundation (NSF)


                         SOCIAL STATISTICS SECTION

The Social Statistics Section seeks to advance research in social
statistics, both in areas which involve the use of methods of statistical
inquiry, and in those which involve the use of statistical data and the
development of statistical measurement.  This section will also plan for
active participation in the affairs of the American Statistical Association
by those interested in these matters and for representation of activities
in this major field in the program of the ASA.


                           OFFICERS AND CONTACTS

|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Joseph Salvo                        |  Natalya Verbitsky Savitz            |
|  Chair, 2012                         |  Secretary/Treasurer 2012-13         |
|  jsalvo@planning.nyc.gov             |  NVSavitz@Mathematica-MPR.com        |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Linda A. Jacobsen                   |  Robert Santos                       |
|  Chair-Elect, 2012                   |  Council of Sections Rep, 2010-12    |
|  ljacobsen@prb.org                   |  RSantos@urban.org                   |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  John Thompson                       |  Joanna M. Turner                    |
|  Past-Chair, 2012                    |  Publications Officer, 2011-12       |
|  Thompson-John@norc.org              |  turn0053@umn.edu                    |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Elizabeth Stuart                    |  Rick Peterson                       |
|  Program Chair, 2012                 |  Staff Liaison                       |
|  estuart@jhsph.edu                   |  Rick@amstat.org                     |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
|  Deborah H. Griffin                  |                                      |
|  Program Chair-Elect, 2012           |                                      |
|  deborah.h.griffin@census.gov        |                                      |
|--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|