Have U.S. Weather Patterns been Abnormal in Recent Years?"


Feb 8, 2011
A Presentation by Ron Tracy

The National Climatic Data Center estimates that the average US temperature has risen one degree Fahrenheit since 1970. However, given a variety of issues the signal to noise ratio does not enable this to be statistically confirmed. Early results of my research using a different approach appear to suggest that a statistically significant change has occurred. Discussion of the problems with weather data and results for the entire US will be presented.

Ronald Tracy received his Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University in 1975. He came to Oakland University from a faculty position at Southern Illinois University (1974-1982). He was Chair of the Department of Economics from 1985 until 1993, acting chair in Fall 1999, and again in 2003. He was Associate Dean of the School of Business Administration from 2006 to 2009. His research interests include econometric methodology, monetary policy, statistical education, and applied economics. He has published in the area of statistical theory, demography and macroeconomics. His publications have appeared in such journals as the Journal of Macroeconomics, Southern Economic Journal, Journal of Economic Development, Journal of Applied Statistics, and the American Statistician. In addition, he coedited The Economic Legacy of the Reagan Years: Euphoria or Chaos?, and is co-author of Visual Statistics (which will be entering its 3rd edition). He has been awarded three Oakland University Research Fellowships, and three National Science Foundation grants to support his research. He has advised the State of Michigan on Child Support policy, been a statistical consultant to General Motors, and coauthored Jobs for the 21st Century in Oakland County, Michigan for Oakland County.